McCain Vs Obama - My thoughts

This is the first US election which I am observing and follwing so closely. USA being the world's most powerful democracy, this election has world wide implications. The world today is extremely polarized on all issues that matter. Be it the globalization impact, be it the policy to tackle extremism, or closer home be it regional/national chauvinism.

In such a backdrop, this US elections is not a normal election. The stakes are extremely high and the choices are equally tough. There are a number of factors which are influencing this race

1. The Bush Factor - George W Bush is the most hated figure today in the world. This is after 9/11 when the entire nation was with him and also got him elected again to complete the job to catch OBL. Today there is a strong anti incumbancy factor against him in particular and republicans in general because of the way they have handled the war on terror and the Iraq fiasco. Obama has a great advantage in that regard and his campaign has made sure that they keep giving the message that McCain is going to be an extension of Bush-Cheny duo.

2. The Economy - If Bush was a catastrophy for McCain, the economic crisis came as a jolt from the blue to him. The subprime crisis which culminated into the broader economic breakdown, made sure that the anti incumbancy against Bush sore to unimaginable levels. Obama was able to attribute most of the economy blues to republicans. McCain's "maverick reaction" of stopping the campaign and going to Washington did not bore well with the common man as he ended up bailing out the very people who were responsible for the mess. Another negative factor which is working in Obama's favor.

3. The Palin Factor - McCain chose an almost unknown Sarah Palin as his running mate. In the beginning the charming Palin was able to attract a lot of republican mass. She came across as a conservative republican, which McCain was not. But as time went on, it turned out that she was not prepared to be the VP candidate, forget having the presidential mantle. Interview after interview proved that she did not have the knowledge that a good VP candidate must possess. And though Joe Biden also made a number of blunders, the media chose to focus on Palin and her inability to name a newspaper she read, or her linking of economic crisis to "its about job creation". Palin has proved to turn away the independant voters which in a tight race like this are the major attractions for both campaigns. The acerbic nature of her campaign only turned them away from republicans. Yet another negative factor working in Obama's favor.

4. The Iraq War - The war in Iraq might has been a utter disaster throughout. Although the surge helped now, but to go to war against Iraq was a disaster which majority of Americans have absolutely rejected. McCain, obliged by the republican ideology has supported the war in first place and still continues a coercive millatry based foreign policy instead of a "diplomacy based" foreign policy. This has made the world a dangerous place and a extremely polarized place to live in. Obama showed good judgement by opposing the Iraq war and the need to focus on eliminating the apparatus of terrorism in Afghanistan/Pakistan duo. Another factor in Obama's favor.

5. OBAMA Mania - Amid all the negativities, surrounded in the world in general and USA in particular, Obama gives a hope that is simply put audacious. The way he has managed his campaign over the course of almost 2 years is spectacular. He has been able to beat "The race factor" which is such a big issue for Americans. His message of change reflects the state of mind of people today. All through out the campaign he has been consistent in his message of change and has laid out a broad ideology of reaching out to others. His foreign policy approach is also based on using "diplomacy" as a cornerstone of his foriegn policy and not relying solely upon brute millatry force to achieve the strategic goals. He is willing to talk to states like Iran also, which is good because the neo con notion of "Either you are with us or against us" has not worked in last 8 years. In all his public appearances, he has appeared as a calm, cool, composed and presidential by all means. His oratary skills are great, but he has also done well to not shy away from tough questions like his allegiance to his radical pastor Right or his linkage to Bill Ayers etc.

This does not mean, all his ideas are correct or that he will not make mistakes. Considering the enormous challenges, he will most certainly make mistakes. But because of his thought process and ability to reach out to people, even if he makes mistakes, he will be able to accept the mistakes, get over them quickly and get the correct advice from the people around him.

My Prediction

Considering the opposition candidate and his ideology and based on Obama's campaign, his ideology and personal traits, I feel Obama will win by a comfortable majority (if not a land slide). I hope he is able to bring the change tha the talks about. I hope better sense prevails throughout the world and we become less polarized and develop the much required ability to "Agree to Disagree", for that trait alone will ensure better times to come for future generations.